We are being asked questions regarding the potential impact of the current geopolitical situation — particularly developments in the Middle East — on our industry and supply chains.

This remains a complex and evolving situation, and it is difficult to predict outcomes with certainty.  In recent years, our industry has already navigated several major global challenges, including the ongoing Russia–Ukraine conflict, and now growing instability in the Middle East.  These events, combined with shifting global alliances and economic pressures, continue to influence buying patterns, logistics, and pricing.  The Russia–Ukraine war remains particularly significant for vegetable oil markets.  Sunflower oil, widely produced in the region, has experienced continued price pressure, which in turn affects other vegetable oils that can act as substitutes.  The region also produces several essential oils —including pine and clary sage — where supply and pricing have periodically been affected.  Alongside geopolitical factors, certain products are experiencing their own market pressures.  Long-term increases in orange oil pricing and the well-known volatility of products such as patchouli and geranium are examples of markets where supply dynamics continue to fluctuate due to climate, agricultural shifts, and global demand.

With this in mind, we have spent several years strengthening our sourcing and logistics strategies.  We maintain strong relationships with suppliers across multiple regions, allowing us to benefit from good market visibility and dialogue.  Where possible, we work with multiple approved suppliers and maintain alternative sourcing routes, whether through different origins or suppliers.  We have also increased our stock holdings of key materials over time.  This approach provides a degree of supply security while also helping manage transport costs.  However, logistics pressures are increasing.  Shipping times are lengthening and freight costs are rising due to war surcharges, higher insurance premiums, and fuel costs.  Some vessels are being rerouted to avoid conflict zones, creating delays and container imbalances.  Air freight and courier shipments are also becoming more expensive, particularly for hazardous cargo where carrier options are limited.

While the Middle East is not a major producing region for many of the products in our sector, it remains a critical global logistics hub.  Any disruption to shipping routes in the region can have wider implications for freight costs and transit times.  In this environment, we encourage customers, wherever possible, to review stock levels and share demand forecasts in advance.  Many aromatic and botanical products are increasingly operating in seller-driven markets due to climate pressures and agricultural shifts, meaning supply is not always available immediately on demand.  Clear communication allows us to plan and secure supply more effectively.

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For the moment, we have increased our attention to logistics, stock management, and lead times.  As always, we continue to recommend customers contract on their key materials, where continuity of supply and pricing stability is secured.  We will continue to monitor developments closely and remain committed to ensuring continuity of supply wherever possible.  Like many across the global business community, we hope that current conflicts can be resolved sooner rather than later, reducing both the human and economic impact being felt worldwide.